The Gold Outlook 2023

  • Gold prices fell to their lowest since 2018 in 2019, but analysts forecast a rebound for 2020.
  • Gold prices fell to $1,200 an ounce in 2019, a 10% decline from 2018.
  • Analysts expect gold prices to fall to $1,000 an ounce in 2020, and for prices to rise to $1,500 an ounce in 2021.

Gold prices fell sharply in 2019, but analysts are forecasting a rebound in 2020 and beyond.
In 2019, gold prices fell 10%, and analysts expect the commodity to continue its downward trend in 2020. Some analysts believe that the commodity will reach the $1,000 mark in 2020, and that prices could fall as low as $700. In 2021, analysts forecast gold prices to rise to $1,500 an ounce.



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Gold Analysis

Gold finished 2019 at +15.5% vs. the S&P 500's +10.9%, but Goldman expects the precious metal to lose some steam in 2020 and 2021. After a pullback, Goldman expects gold stocks to rally through 2022 and 2023.
However, Goldman warns that drawdowns in gold stocks are "well-documented," so investors looking for double-digit returns should "take profits off the table" if gold stocks pull back.

gold outlook 2023

Gold Futures

Gold prices are expected to continue rising in 2019. Gold's recent pullback may have been a pause in a longer-term uptrend. Gold currently trades at $1,896.90 per ounce, which is higher than it was at the beginning of the year.
Goldman Sachs expects gold to remain volatile in 2019. Bernstein analyst Craige Friedman expects gold prices to continue rising in 2019.
Gold bulls are confident that gold's recent pullback was a short-term event. Gold bulls believe that gold will continue to rise in 2019 due to several reasons, including macroeconomic uncertainty, the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates, and geopolitical uncertainties.

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Gold ETFs

Since 2019, the price of gold has fallen by around 20%, from $1,300 per ounce at the start of this year to $1,130 per ounce at year-end 2020. The price of gold is now below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which is a signal that the bearish trend will continue over the coming weeks.
The iShares Gold Trust (IAU), the largest gold ETF, is in a long-term downtrend, having broken below a long-term support zone in July 2019. The bearish trend on IAU is likely to continue until the price is above $140 or $200.
The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), the second largest gold ETF, is also in a long-term downtrend, having broken below a long-term support zone in July 2017. GLD has support at $50, but the price is unlikely to break below this level until the price of gold increases.
Gold Miners
Since 2019, the price of gold has fallen by around 20%, from $1,300 per ounce at the start of this year to $1,130 per ounce at year-end 2020. The price of gold is now below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which is a signal that the bearish trend will continue over the coming weeks.
The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is also in a long-term downtrend. GDX has fallen below a long-term support zone in July 2019. GDX is likely to continue moving lower until the price is above $18 or $25.



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Gold Miners

Gold miners' stocks were among the best performers in 2021. The sector had an impressive run, gaining more than 70% in 2021. The stellar performance was mainly due to the impressive sector rotation from high-flying financials and technology stocks to less risky gold miners. Moreover, gold miners outperformed gold in the same year.
The outlook for gold miners is bright. Gold's performance has been superb, with prices rising more than 5% in the last five trading sessions. Gold prices are expected to climb further in 2022. Gold has an inverse relationship with the U.S. dollar; it goes up when the U.S. dollar goes down. The fall in the U.S. dollar, partly driven by the depreciation in the Turkish lira, has boosted gold prices.
Gold Miners
Gold miners' stocks have been one of the hottest performance in 2021. The sector had an impressive run, gaining more than 70% in 2021. The stellar performance was mainly due to the impressive sector rotation from high-flying financials and technology stocks to less risky gold miners. Moreover, gold miners outperformed gold in the same year.
The outlook for gold miners is bright. Gold's performance has been superb, with prices rising more than 5% in the last five trading sessions. Gold prices are expected to climb further in 2022. Gold has an inverse relationship with the U.S. dollar; it goes up when the U.S. dollar goes down. The fall in the U.S. dollar, partly driven by the depreciation in the Turkish lira, has boosted gold prices.

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Gold Miners Key Statistics

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Average Annual Dividend Yield: 1.0%
Average Annual Total Return: 5.5%
Average Annual Total Return (%) vs. S&P 500: 10.0%
Average Annual Growth Rate: 11.0%

Gold is losing its luster. The yellow metal has suffered from lackluster demand from central banks, which have been net sellers for the past three years, according to Goldman Sachs. Even with the recent strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which hurts gold's appeal as a hedge against inflation, the precious metal is losing its luster.

Gold ETFs Key Statistics

Constituents: GLD, ticker: GLD, IAU, ticker: IAU, IRF, ticker: IRF, PHYS, ticker: PHYS, IAU, ticker: IAU

Assets Under Management (AUM): $91.42 billion

Market Cap: $9.16 billion

Expense Ratio (fees charged to investors): 0.40%

5-Year Average Annual Return: 10.97%

10-Year Average Annual Return: 11.34%

Gold Futures Key Statistics

Contract Name: December Gold
Symbol: GC
Exchange: COMEX

CMC Group - Price: $1,622.00

Open: 02:00 PM

High: 02:00 PM

Low: 02:00 PM

24hr Vol: 15,000

52wk Range: $1,440.00 - $1,857.00